Every lottery ticket is a long shot, and knowing exactly how long helps you play with realistic expectations. Here are the real numbers for the two biggest U.S. games, how they are calculated, and what they mean for picking numbers.
Powerball odds
Powerball asks you to match five white balls drawn from 69 and one red Powerball drawn from 26. The number of possible combinations is 69 choose 5 (11,238,513) times 26, which gives 292,201,338. Exactly one of those combinations wins the jackpot, so the jackpot odds are 1 in 292,201,338.
| Match | Odds (1 in …) |
|---|---|
| 5 white + Powerball (jackpot) | 292,201,338 |
| 5 white | 11,688,053.52 |
| 4 white + Powerball | 913,129.18 |
| 4 white | 36,525.17 |
| 3 white + Powerball | 14,494.11 |
| 3 white | 579.76 |
| 2 white + Powerball | 701.33 |
| 1 white + Powerball | 91.98 |
| Powerball only | 38.32 |
Adding those up, the chance of winning some prize on a Powerball ticket is about 1 in 25.
Mega Millions odds
Since April 2025, Mega Millions uses five white balls from 70 and one gold Mega Ball from 24. That is 70 choose 5 (12,103,014) times 24, or 290,472,336 combinations, so the jackpot odds are 1 in 290,472,336. Before the change the game used a 25-ball Mega Ball and the jackpot odds were roughly 1 in 302.6 million. For the current prize table and the odds of each lower tier, see the official Mega Millions site.
What do those odds actually mean?
- Each drawing is independent. The balls have no memory. A number that has not come up in months is no more “due” than any other number.
- Every combination is equally likely. 1-2-3-4-5 has exactly the same chance as any other set of five numbers. Popular patterns, like birthdays, just mean more people share the prize if they hit.
- Hot and overdue numbers do not improve your odds. Our number generator can build lines from historical frequency because many people enjoy playing that way, but it is a fun way to choose, not a way to win more often.
- More tickets help only a little. Ten tickets in a Powerball drawing is still about 1 in 29 million.
Why jackpots grow so large
With odds around 1 in 290 million, most drawings have no jackpot winner. The unclaimed jackpot rolls over and the next drawing starts higher, which is why prizes can climb into the hundreds of millions or more. You can see the current estimates on our Powerball and Mega Millions pages.
Annuity versus cash value
The big advertised jackpot is the annuity amount, paid over 30 years. Winners can instead take the smaller cash value as a lump sum. That is why we show both numbers on each game page. Taxes then reduce either choice.
Play smart
Treat a ticket as paying for the fun of the daydream, set a budget before you play, and never spend money you need for bills. Learn how to check your ticket and how the drawings work for Powerball and Mega Millions.
GoWinLotto is an independent site and is not affiliated with any lottery. Figures above are published game rules and can change; confirm details with the official game website or your state lottery. Lottery drawings are random, no tool can predict them, and tickets should be treated as entertainment. Need help? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.